Academic Research in Progress:

  • The Ins and Outs of Canadian Unemployment: Implications for the Business Cycle, 2007.

    Abstract: A major reason economists study business cycles is because more people are unemployed in recessions. Unemployment rises because more people lose their jobs (separations) and because jobs are harder to find. This paper decomposes unemployment fluctuations to quantify the relative contributions of job-finding and separations in Canadian recessions. In contrast to recent research for the U.S., such as Shimer (2005) and Hall (2005), which emphasizes almost exclusively the role of depressed job finding in the last few recessions, my results suggest separations play an important role in the Canadian business cycle.
          In addition, I find that recessionary job losses are concentrated mainly in durable goods industries (construction and manufacturing). I am investigating whether changes in the industrial composition can explain the movements of the aggregate job finding and separation rates, and whether sectoral change has contributed to the decline in aggregate volatility.

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